All eyes watching the Time Warner deal are now on the U.S. Department of Justice following a meeting between AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson and Preside-elect Donald Trump in which the carrier said the pair did not discuss the transaction.
Trump and Stephenson met Thursday at Trump Tower in New York City. But while initial reports from Bloomberg indicated the Time Warner bid would be on the table, AT&T released a statement Thursday afternoon noting it was not part of Stephenson and Trump’s chat.
Instead of the deal, AT&T indicated Stephenson and Trump covered a “wide-range of topics” including “how AT&T can work with the Trump administration to increase investment in the U.S., stimulate job creation in America, and make American companies more competitive globally.”
In a Friday morning note, Wells Fargo Senior Analyst Jennifer Fritzsche indicated all eyes will now turn to the DOJ for the next steps in the deal. Fritzsche noted Trump’s opinion – whatever way it leans – will likely have little impact on the Justice Department’s decision, but observed that fact doesn’t mean the administration won’t try to wield some influence.
“Because the companies do not need FCC approval for the deal, political opposition to the transaction would likely have little impact on the review process,” Fritzsche wrote. “This is because DOJ must be able to defend a decision to block the deal in a court of law and our regulatory experts tell us that they would likely lose in court. Our contacts tell us that this deal presents nothing out of the ordinary compared to other vertical mergers that DOJ has approved for years. This legal and practical reality does not mean that the incoming White House couldn’t try to assert leverage over the conditions or terms of approval through indirect channels.”
To make it past DOJ scrutiny, Fritzsche said Wells Fargo expects there will be concessions from AT&T, possibly including a spin-off of CNN and promises of continued infrastructure investment.
But if AT&T wants to use jobs as a sweetener for Trump, Fritzsche indicated they might have a leg to stand on. Unlike other major transactions, she said, the AT&T-Time Warner deal is not expected to result in major staff reductions thanks to a lack of overlap in the core businesses and expertise.
