Amid increasing speculation surrounding a potential merger between U.S. wireless carrier T-Mobile and a host of contenders, Deutsche Telekom’s chief on Wednesday said the company is “not in the mood” to sell the Un-carrier.
According to a report from Reuters, DT CEO Tim Hoettges’ comments were delivered at the annual Morgan Stanley TMT conference in London, where he told investors the company isn’t in any rush to offload T-Mobile.
“We are not in the mood of selling the business,” Hoettges said. “We are not in the mood of ‘Oh where is the partner we need?’”
However, Hoettges noted DT certainly is keeping an eye on the changing political climate in the United States. With a new Republican president in power, he said, the odds of a viable deal could increase.
“With Trump, the regulatory environment might change,” Hoettges said. “At least the change is bigger than it was under the Democrats.”
So what possibilities might be out there for T-Mobile?
In a Thursday note, BTIG’s Walter Piecyk said Masayoshi Son, CEO of Sprint parent company SoftBank, is still interested in a merger with the Un-carrier. Such a deal, Piecyk said, could unleash an estimated $30 billion or more in synergies and remove the need for T-Mobile to spend $20 billion on incremental spectrum given Sprint’s massive reserves. Combined, T-Mobile and Sprint would control naround 45 percent of available spectrum in most markets, he noted. Plus, T-Mobile’s expected generation of $4.6 billion in free cash flow in 2018 would be plenty to offset Sprint’s cash burn problem, Piecyk said.
Another possibility is a deal with a cable operator like Comcast. Piecyk said such a route would offer DT a “cleaner path to monetization” since a cable operator’s “cash flow is rooted in a stable broadband business and which offers important synergies from their fiber footprints and diversified service offerings.”
But Piecyk isn’t hopeful an incoming Republican regime will boost likelihood of a successful deal, especially in the case of a proposed merger with rival U.S. wireless carrier Sprint. Piecyk gave a hypothetical Sprint-T-Mobile deal a less than 20 percent chance of passing regulatory scrutiny. He also pointed to old feuds between President-elect Donald Trump and T-Mobile and Sprint CEOs John Legere and Marcelo Claure as another hurdle in an administration that reportedly has a propensity to “settle old scores.” An acquisition deal with a cable operator or tech company would likely have a “much higher chance of success,” he said.
“There is no indication that the President-elect will abandon his populist platform,” Piecyk wrote. “Job loss and rising prices are clearly populist issues and a Sprint/T-Mobile merger could threaten both … A Sprint/T-Mobile merger could also trigger concerns rooted in a nationalist platform as the deal would result in a foreign company obtaining a larger position with a telecom company, on which 100 million Americans send emails, texts, and access the internet.”
Despite these doubts, Piecyk said BTIG was raising its price targets for both T-Mobile and Sprint from $56 to $65 and $2 to $2.50, respectively.
In any event, Piecyk said discussion of a merger at this point is likely moot as Deutsche Telekom would likely want to hear all offers before making a decision – something it can’t do currently thanks to the ongoing spectrum auction. That means initial deal talks – if there are any – likely wouldn’t begin until the end of the incentive auction, which BTIG has forecast for the first quarter of 2017.