Chris Hohn, founder of hedge fund TCI, on Thursday reportedly floated a prediction at the Sohn Conference in London that “Verizon over time will buy Charter (Communications).”
But when questioned about the likelihood of such an arrangement, Recon Analytics’ Roger Entner balked at the thought.
According to Entner, such a move would run contrary to around a decade of efforts on Verizon’s part to get out of wireline.
“Tell me why Verizon is selling landline and FiOS properties left and right just to buy a cable company,” Entner challenged. “Verizon has been a seller of wireline, not a buyer. The reason they bought XO (Communications) was because (XO) really didn’t have any customers and they got fiber and spectrum licenses. In three years when Frontier has money again, when they have digested California, Texas, and Florida, Verizon will most likely sell them the northeast. The key is Verizon’s strategy is getting out of retail fixed and this would get them deeper in than they ever were before.”
While fiber will certainly be an important asset for Verizon in the 5G future, Entner said a deal to buy Charter would come with the headache of lots of customers and offer very little upside. Entner guessed a hypothetical deal with Charter would cost the carrier somewhere around 10 times as much as the nearly $4 billion Verizon agreed to pay to acquire Yahoo earlier this year.
Verizon’s real end game, he said, is sticking to wireless and keeping fiber assets an in-house affair.
“In the markets where they sold FiOS to Frontier simultaneously they built their own fiber backhaul using the right of ways they still had to just put them in and get done with it,” Entner said. “What Verizon is planning to do is insource their fiber backhaul, but buying Charter comes with so many headaches it’s not even funny. Who wants these headaches right when they’re cleaning up everything?”