Though the new iPhone SE has largely garnered a yawn for its lack of revolutionary technical or physical specs, some analysts think the device is just what the doctor ordered.
According to J.P. Morgan analyst Rod Hall, Apple is sitting on a goldmine with the iPhone SE.
“Apple just opened up a substantial iPhone market opportunity and nobody seems to have noticed,” Hall wrote in a note cited by Barron’s.
Hall said the market for devices in the $400-$450 range accounted for 43 million units of sales last year. Assuming Apple, which currently has about a 65 percent unit share in the $450+ handset category, can snag a 40 percent share of the lower price bracket, the tech giant is looking at 17 million units in iPhone SE sales this year, Hall said. From there, the math just gets more impressive.
Hall said Apple has the potential to capture $6.9 billion in additional revenue with the iPhone SE, which boils down to $2.8 billion in incremental profit and $2.3 billion in additional earnings after taxes. Those figures would boost Apple’s earnings per share by 43 cents, Hall said.
Hall isn’t thinking in a bubble, either. During its launch event, Apple said its decision to launch the SE was sparked by demand for a smaller device from first-time iPhone buyers and iPhone enthusiasts alike.
Hall’s 17 million unit sales figure is just over half of the 30 million four-inch devices Apple said it sold last year.
If Apple manages to make Hall’s calculation a reality, it could be a boon for a company struggling to live up to the massive success of its iPhone 6 launch.
Apple has warned first quarter sales figures will likely see their first decline in 13 years. The sales drop could be accompanied by a revenue decline around 8 percent for the January to March quarter, the company said.
However, earlier this month, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty said overall demand for the iPhone this quarter has surpassed expectations and could even see an extra boost from Apple’s launch event.