For U.S. cable operators, the sky is apparently very well in place, particularly in the near-term, according to a new telco TV forecast from Kagan Research.
Kagan said the telco video providers will net a paltry 5 percent (about 6 million subs) of the multichannel market by 2010, and just 8.5 percent by 2015.
It’s almost certain that the telcos hope to do much better, considering the massive investments they are making. Kagan estimates that incumbent telcos will pass about 26.3 million homes with fiber by the end of 2006. Of the 55 million homes expected to be passed with fiber by 2010, Kagan estimates that 40 million homes, or about 75 percent of that footprint, will be video-enabled.
The new report from Kagan maps the country into six regions, showing locations owned by 169 cable MSOs and independent operators and telco footprint overlays.