Cable stocks were down more than two percent each Tuesday morning for the likes of Comcast, Charter, and CenturyLink after prominent analyst firm MoffettNathanson downgraded the sector amid concerns about declines in linear TV and broadband subscriber growth.
In a Tuesday research note, analyst Craig Moffett labeled the cable sector with a “neutral” rating, bumping it down from its former ranking at “outperform.” The move follows a sharp rise in cable stock prices over the years, Moffett says, and comes ahead of what he dubs an “inevitable” slowdown in broadband and traditional video growth.
“We conclude that, after a years-long bull run, cable stocks are now more or less fairly valued…and at current prices no longer warrant an outperform rating,” Moffett explains. “In short, it appears that at current valuations, risks and rewards are reasonably in balance.”
Moffett points out that cable has successfully climbed a “wall of worry” related to fears of an internet takeover over the past five years, tripling and in some cases quadrupling stock prices along the way. But now, he observes, the market appears to be “arguably too complacent about cord-cutting,” and blind to pricing pressures that are headed down the pipe.
“That the vMVPD business will be a profitless one, with virtually no margins at all, is becoming increasingly clear. It is unimaginable that this won’t have an impact on prevailing prices,” he adds. “Our revised forecast calls for steady erosion in video gross profit per subscriber (including advertising gross profit) for all operators.”
Though the cable sector overall was pegged at neutral, Moffett moved Comcast in particular from a neutral rating to “buy” at a target price of $45. Charter remained at neutral, as did CenturyLink and AT&T. Moffett maintained Verizon at a buy rating at a $50 target price.