It’s time for a reality check.

MoffettNathanson on Thursday threw some “cold water” on fevered investor speculation around a potential Sprint-T-Mobile merger following SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son’s meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump this week.

While the market has been quick to take the meeting and Son’s subsequent commitment to invest $50 billion and create 50,000 new jobs over the next four years as either a quid pro quo deal or an attempt to win Trump’s favor, MoffettNathanson noted such a deal would still be “hard to sell” – both to Deutsche Telekom and the Department of Justice, Republican administration notwithstanding.

For Deutsche Telekom, it starts with a matter of Sprint’s valuation versus the company’s actual financial footing.

“As we’ve written repeatedly over the past year, if one strips away the distortions created by handset lease accounting, Sprint trades at an extraordinary premium to T-Mobile.  Perhaps the market will never go through the effort to figure out just how large these distortions are, but T-Mobile and its parent Deutsche Telekom certainly will,” MoffettNathanson observed.

“All this suggests that it would be very hard indeed to arrive at an exchange ratio that T-Mobile and its parent Deutsche Telekom would find remotely appealing (indeed, we have illustrated elsewhere that if Sprint were valued at the same multiple as T-Mobile it would have no equity value whatsoever … ),” MoffettNathanson analysts continued.

The alternative scenario, MoffettNathanson said, would be SoftBank purchasing T-Mobile, which would be a heavy lift for a company with already high leverage. Besides, Deutsche Telekom would likely be wary of accepting an offer from a company with stock that is “heavily reflective” of the inflated value being assigned to Sprint, the analysts noted.

All of the above speculation assumes a T-Mobile and Sprint merger has a significant chance of passing DOJ scrutiny – a notion MoffettNathanson was quick to dismiss, citing a market that’s more concentrated now than when the 2014 merger idea was squashed and concerns around spectrum ownership.

While the tide may turn in telecom’s favor with the incoming administration, MoffettNathanson’s advice to those betting on a merger was this: cool your jets.

“We’re not saying it can’t be done, but we are saying that the odds being assigned to success are simply too high,” the analysts concluded.