The imminent death of the set-top box (STB) has been a topic of conversation for a long time, especially in the consumer press. But new research from SNL Kagan is indicating that a full demise does not look like it’s exactly immediate.

Worldwide STB shipments are predicted to reach 273 million in 2016, up slightly from 269 million in 2015, SNL Kagan reports. It also says that in addition to the growth of satellite units, cable shipments are also expected to increase modestly in 2016, while demand for DTT and IP STBs remains relatively flat. Despite the projected volume increase for 2016, the research firm notes that STB revenues are again trending lower. High-volume set-tops are continuing to experience declining average selling prices (ASPs), according to the research, primarily due to production efficiencies and decreasing component prices.

“At year-end 2016, we are projecting global STB revenues to be $16.4 billion, an annual decrease of 6 percent,” SNL Kagan says in a statement.

The research indicates that demand for STBs is projected to rise slightly over the next year, with unit shipments reaching 275 million in 2017. Beginning in 2018, unit shipments are forecasted to begin slipping due to slowing growth in pay TV households and the increasing use of alternative devices including smart TVs and streaming media devices, SNL Kagan says.

SNL Kagan is projecting the total STB unit shipments will decrease further in 2018 and 2019, but it does add that “demand for STB products will remain robust for the next several years. In fact, global shipments are still forecasted to exceed 261 million in 2020.”

Huawei shipped an estimated 26 million units last year, outpacing Skyworth by a million units, according to SNL Kagan, and Technicolor finished third in total market share after seeing demand for its satellite boxes dip somewhat in 2015. Arris was in fourth place after a 13 percent drop in estimated annual shipments, which the research firm says was mostly due to slowing North American demand for lower-end cable boxes. SNL Kagan places Pace, Changhong, and Yinhe as the companies rounding out the top seven manufacturers.

The company’s annual global look at the STB market, “The Set-Top Box Market Remains Robust,” includes an Excel pivot table and articles on cable, IP/telecommunications, satellite, digital terrestrial television (DTT), and 4K STBs.