Global revenues from 4G services are expected to overtake those generated by 3G services this year, but wireless service revenues will soon reach their apex, a new report from Strategy Analytics said.
The report indicates 4G will make up 49 percent of global services revenues from just a quarter of the total number of year-end subscriptions. In North America, 4G service revenue will account for 79 percent of wireless service revenue. Japan and South Korea will top that figure with 82 percent and 90 percent of their respective wireless revenues coming from 4G. Just 10 percent of wireless revenues in the Middle East and Africa are projected to come from 4G services.
“The advanced markets of the USA, Japan, and South Korea will see the vast majority of their revenue come from 4G LTE services this year, though China will also make a significant contribution,” Strategy Analytics executive director Wireless Operator Strategies Phil Kendall said. “Overtaking the USA to become the world’s largest 4G market in Q3 2015, China is the envy of other developing markets with over half of its 2016 revenue projected to come from 4G LTE.”
Total wireless service revenue is forecast to grow 0.6 percent in 2016 to $864 billion. 4G networks are also expected to add 800 million connections in 2016, for a total of 1.9 billion by the end of the year. That figure is expected to grow to 5.6 billion connections by the end of 2022, accounting for 62 percent of all user-linked wireless subscriptions.
But the growth won’t necessarily continue indefinitely.
Strategy Analytics said wireless service revenue is expected to peak in 2019 at $882 billion.
Despite carrier claims, Strategy Analytics said commercial 5G services aren’t expected to hit the stage for another few years. The report said 5G will start with just 2 million connections in 2020 and see rapid growth to reach 116 million in 2022.